This analysis provides compelling evidence for a very different explanation of the midterm results than what most analysts are offering – an explanation which I have been arguing was possible for more than a year. Even before November 2021 (when Democrats suffered major losses in Virginia and elsewhere), I argued that
Fighting an uphill battle here in Ohio to try and get progressives focused on the importance of turnout and, consequently, mobilization messaging. Here, election after election, the party and candidates seem determined to instead pander to the middle to win over swing voters with milquetoast messaging.
Would you consider digging into why Ohio fared so poorly in 2022 even with Vance on the top of the ticket? My take from on the ground in the state is that Ryan failed to sufficiently highlight his opponent's extreme MAGA nature, neither the coordinated campaign led by Ryan nor the party made an effort to excite and mobilize the progressive base, and lack of outside funding left the c3 and c4 groups without sufficient resources to take up the slack.
We have an urgent election in August to protect citizen ballot initiatives (and consequently abortion) and need to re-elect Sherrod Brown in 2024. But I'm not seeing that lessons have been learned.
More on Nevada, please. Having worked there the last three cycles, can't quite mesh this with NV results, tho I am open to the idea this is my deficiency as an analyst.
Looks like someone at the LA Times is reading your blog https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2023-01-20/what-novembers-midterm-elections-tell-us-about-2024-essential-politics
Fighting an uphill battle here in Ohio to try and get progressives focused on the importance of turnout and, consequently, mobilization messaging. Here, election after election, the party and candidates seem determined to instead pander to the middle to win over swing voters with milquetoast messaging.
Would you consider digging into why Ohio fared so poorly in 2022 even with Vance on the top of the ticket? My take from on the ground in the state is that Ryan failed to sufficiently highlight his opponent's extreme MAGA nature, neither the coordinated campaign led by Ryan nor the party made an effort to excite and mobilize the progressive base, and lack of outside funding left the c3 and c4 groups without sufficient resources to take up the slack.
We have an urgent election in August to protect citizen ballot initiatives (and consequently abortion) and need to re-elect Sherrod Brown in 2024. But I'm not seeing that lessons have been learned.
Heard you interviewed by Dan P. So glad you are here writing.
The first regression is missing as of 5 Feb
More on Nevada, please. Having worked there the last three cycles, can't quite mesh this with NV results, tho I am open to the idea this is my deficiency as an analyst.